More numbers to consider:

I am increasingly aware of how lucky we’ve been in terms of recruitment. I’ve always said that “it” (I’m talking UK-wide here!) isn’t just about recruiting new people to the profession – we need to look at retention too. It’s a false economy to just keep throwing time and effort into feeding the funnel without stopping people dropping out of the other end. However, this is proving a double edged sword as there are more and more, HODs moving into SLT positions – increasingly I am being told of how (after the congratulations are over!) they are also retaining responsibility for their subject and the teaching load that comes with it – unlike some of their fellow SLT members.

I genuinely believe that teaching is an amazing job – those “I’ve got this nailed” moments are beyond doubt, the best thing ever! Whenever the opportunity arises to work with the NCTL, acting as a case study, whether that’s radio interviews, newspaper articles or basically anything! I will do so. It could be said that, recruitment is somewhat, a fascination to me – last year I did some “back of a fag packet” calculations about ITT trainees and I’m revisiting it – I’m also using it as an opportunity to highlight how big a challenge the PM has in delivering on his promise to deliver 2500 MORE maths teachers.

In the initial teacher training census for 2014-15 i.e. this current year (so Septembers NQTs) it showed that there were 2186 entrants – 88% of the target figures that the government set.

2014-15 entrants

Being the cynic I am, this got me thinking about my own PGCE course where, for whatever reason, about 25% didn’t finish the course and of course these actual figures aren’t published …. but …. Looking at the ITT performance profiles for 2012-2013 (the latest figures that were published in Oct 14) it shows that for that specific year 15% of trainees didn’t achieve QTS. So it would appear that our dropout rate was quite high (!?!). I then delved further and you can see that 93% of those awarded QTS (again for 2012-2013) then went onto being “in a teaching post”. HOWEVER … when you look at what percentage this is of the number of initial trainees this equates to 76% as the 93% is the % of those awarded QTS (and in a teaching post) and that wasn’t really what I was looking for. For the sake of my figures, I have excluded those for whom, their status is not known – as we can’t be sure that they are teaching/looking for a teaching job!

2012 - 2013 - percentage in posts and seeking posts

**assumption alert**

I know I am making some massive assumptions by overlaying a single years outcomes on this year’s cohort but it’s all I’ve got to go on … so let’s assume that 15% of this year’s trainees (2186) don’t achieve QTS that will take the number of potential candidates to 1858. Now let’s take it a stage further and say that 76% of the trainees will be in teaching or seeking a job from September this year that equates to 1667. Note: I haven’t used the 93% of those awarded QTS I want to look at the % of those that were classed as trainees but taking this figure would have given a number of teachers available from September at about 1730

Given that there is a commitment to deliver 2500 extra teachers I wonder where they’re coming from. I know that the landscape for teacher training has changed and continues to do so, for the better in lots of cases – note the above figures don’t include Teach First (but given that they have recruited 7000 teachers over 11 years across all subjects it may not be the panacea – I do know they have big plans, so it will definitely help! For example they announced a partnership with Barclays looking to recruit an extra 533 teachers which is fab!) but I ask if the landscape will change enough to make the serious dent in the number of teachers that are required. I hope so. I really do … so many people are missing out on the best job in the world (ok … most of the time!!)

2 thoughts on “More numbers to consider:”

  1. You’ve successfully identified the biggest single issue in the teaching of mathematics for years to come and it’s going to be bad. If you get a chance to talk to any maths teachers who have been teaching for over 15 years (if there are any left) ask them about their experience during the previous teacher recruitment crisis. The education system goes in cycles and we are back to mathematically unqualified and inexperienced teachers trying to teach maths and causing no end of damage.

    Teaching should be a rewarding job but unfortunately Ofsted and the Education department are doing their utmost to make it an impossible and unrewarding job, certainly in state schools anyway.

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  2. Pingback: More numbers to consider: – JustMaths | The Echo Chamber

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